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Liz Truss odds: The front-runners to replace the UK Prime Minister

The appointment of a new Chancellor of the Exchequer and a U-Turn on the majority of her economic plans had provided a brief respite following weeks volatility in markets and politics. But bets on the premier’s departure continue. PaddyPower places the likelihood of Truss being replaced by the end of the year at 1/8.

Rishi Sunak, who ran against Truss in the Conservative leadership election this summer, remains Sky Bet’s favourites with the bookmaker paying out £7 ($7.83) for every £4 bet on the ex-chancellor. New chancellor Jeremy Hunt has climbed the list of favourites after less than a week in the role, with bets on both Hunt and Leader of the House of Commons Penny Mordaunt at 4/1.

Keir Starmer has slipped down the list of likely candidates, suggesting bookies favour an internal Tory replacement rather than a general election, with odds on the Labour leader down to 8/1 from 3/1 at Sky Bet. The bookmaker also sees speculation of former prime ministers Boris Johnson and Theresa May returning to Number 10. They place higher in the odds than all current cabinet members apart from Mordaunt.

Odds from betting on politics should be taken with a large pinch of salt. In markets terms, they reflect the views of retail investors, rather than professional analysts. Even so, they hint at concerns building over Truss’s ability to lead the UK.

Here are the odds bookmakers were offering on Thursday morning:

Net PM Sky Bet PaddyPower
Rishi Sunak 7/4 17/10
Jeremy Hunt 4/1 4/1
Penny Mordaunt 4/1 7/2
Boris Johnson 8/1 9/1
Keir Starmer 8/1 7/1
Ben Wallace 10/1 10/1
Theresa May 16/1 20/1

© 2022 Bloomberg


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