Bitcoin price is currently trading at $19,400.89 with a slight rise of nearly 4% in the past 24 hours. Rekt Capital, a well-known cryptocurrency expert, forecasts that in the worst-case scenario, the price of a bitcoin might fall below $11,500, below the previous low of $13,900.
The historical evidence suggests that the price of bitcoin will progressively decline
According to the graph, which depicts violent combat between bears and bulls, bears dominate over bulls. It is possible to observe that the BTC price is struggling to rise beyond the $20,000 mark, which indicates a shaky signal. The price range of $20,000–$23,350 determines whether an asset is a bear or a bull. With $20,000 acting as a support, price variations show the disparity in buy-side pressure.
September’s price movements were incredibly sluggish, making $20,000 a level of resistance. $17,165 and $13,900 will be the next support levels if the price of BTC drops below $20,000 by the end of the month.
Bitcoin Bottom May Hit $11KSoon
After a Death Cross, historically, the price of Bitcoin (BTC) developed a bottom at or below the 200-weekly moving average (WMA). Retracements following the Death Cross have ranged from -42% to -73%.
Based on prior post-death cross retracements, it is predicted that the price of Bitcoin will bottom out at $13,900. In the worst-case scenario, the cost is anticipated to fall to $11,500.
Given that the price of Bitcoin has dropped below both the psychological milestone of $20,000 and the 200-week moving average, the downside now seems more certain. In comparison to earlier times, there has been a considerable change in the market cap size, liquidity, and institutional and retail adoption of Bitcoin.
In 2015, there were 547 days before the Bitcoin halving, whereas, in 2018, there were 517 days. If BTC is going to bottom out this year, it will happen in the fourth quarter, which is 517–547 days before the scheduled April 2024 price halving.
Macros Influencing the Cost of BTC
Despite an increase in the number of new addresses being established every day, the price of Bitcoin remains to drop below $20,000 on a daily basis.
The Fed rate hype on September 21 will have the most significant impact on the price of Bitcoin. Wall Street experts like Goldman Sachs forecast a 75 bps rate increase in September and a 50bps rate increase in November and December. According to the CME FedWatch tool, there is an 80% chance of a rate increase of 75 basis points.
After rising over 4% from the 24-hour low of $18,390, the BTC price is now trading above $19,400.89. If the USD stays close to 110, the price of BTC will be under pressure.
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